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A study on impacts of astronomical and earthly motility factors on climate change
发布日期:2012-06-06 22:34:51    点击次数:11423        

        Global warming over the past century is an indisputable fact. Solar activity, earthly motility and other astronomical factors are well known as the original drivers of the climate system and its change. However, their contribution to the modern climate change is in great dispute. And their impacts on the future climate change are not understood so far. Until these issues have been better resolved, it is difficult to confirm whether anthropogenic factor plays dominant role in the modern global warming, or to provide comprehensive and accurate scientific support to climate change adaption.
        It is a scientific frontier problem to evaluate the influence of astronomical and earthly motility factors on climate change, because: 1) the direct and indirect effect of astronomical and earthly motility factors on climate change are not scientifically and systematically understood, and even not clear about their driving mechanism; 2) the response process and mechanism of the climate system to these factors remains unclear; 3) contributions between natural and anthropogenic factors to global warming over the past century are difficult to be fully distinguished; 4) convincing results for assessing how astronomical and earthly motility factors impact on the future climate change could not achieve until now.
        China lies in a critical stage of rapid economic and social development nowadays, facing multiple pressures on the balance between energy saving, climate change adaption and mitigation, and sustainable development. To directly fits the national economic, social and political needs, and also to promote China’s climate change research, it is necessary to make clear the contribution of astronomical and earthly motility factors on climate change. Hence, the project designs to understand the impact of astronomical and earthly motility factors on climate system, and plans to: 1) systematically sort out the linkage between astronomical and earthly motility factors and climate change; 2) identify the key factors of astronomy and earthly motility which affect the climate; 3) reveal the affecting ways and driving mechanism by these factors; 4) clarify the physical response process of the climate system to these key factors; 5) establish theoretical models and parameterization programs to simulate the influence of these key factors on the climate system; 6) develop and build the improved climate system model including these key factors’ effects, and then verify their contribution to climate change ; 7) predict and assess the potential impact of these effects on future climate change. Results of the project would enrich the theory research of climate change, deepen understanding of the causes of climate change, promote cross-disciplinary research on climate change, and most important of all, would provide more scientific support to develop the national strategic decision on climate change, and service to China’s sustainable economic and social development.
        The project will integrate the advantages of multi-disciplinary subjects, including atmospheric science, space physics, solar physics, physical oceanography and geophysics, and be set four topics: 1) The key astronomical factors closely associated with climate change. Their changes discipline and driving mechanism; 2) The key earthly motility factors. their changes discipline and their role in the process of climate change; 3) the response processes of climate system to the key astronomical and the earthly motility factors, and its examination; 4) prediction and assessment on the impact of astronomical and earthly motility factors on future climate change.
 

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